2025 Daily Surface Air Temperature Looking Bad

 (climatereanalyzer.org)

35 points | by barrettondricka23 hours ago

7 comments

  • Hammershaft22 hours ago
    The last two years of climate data from sources all over the world has been completely out of distribution. Recently scientists have struggled to understand it because it's worse than the worst predicted trendlines in their models.
  • romaaeterna22 hours ago
    Long term warming trend. We might get up to the previous peak at the beginning of the Late Pleistocene 125,000 years ago before it's all over.
    • defrost22 hours ago
      Short term (within a century) warming trend directly caused by additional atmospheric insulation (CO2) added by human activity.

      We've already reached and are now starting to exceed:

        The global average temperature during the Last Interglacial period, which peaked around 125,000 years ago, was about 0.5–1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.
      • romaaeterna21 hours ago
        The proxies we have for ancient periods don't allow us to state very much about what rates of warming looked like on a short-term scale. It's hard to rule out that it might not have been very much like today. And the CO2-driving argument is predicated on null-warming in the 1800s, which is hard to establish (actually counter-indicated).
        • defrost20 hours ago
          > And the CO2-driving argument is predicated on null-warming in the 1800s

          It's predicated on thermodynamics, heat equations, and the fact that CO2 is an insulator and that CO2 in the atmosphere has measurably increased as a direct result of fossil fuel extraction.

          eg: Manabe, Wetherald 1967.

          https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/24/3/1520-04...

          • romaaeterna19 hours ago
            Throughout the vast majority of geological history, CO2 has been a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator, of global temperature. CO2 was 1600ppm back in the Eocene. High CO2 was caused by the high temperature, not the other way around. Thermodynamics and heat equations and so on all worked the same way in the Eocene as they do today, and nobody was extracting fossil fuels.
            • defrost14 hours ago
              > Throughout the vast majority of geological history, CO2 has been a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator,

              This directly contradicts another opinion upthread:

              > The proxies we have for ancient periods don't allow us to state very much about what rates of warming looked like

              although that was from the person that incorrectly, although confidently, claimed:

              > the CO2-driving argument is predicated on null-warming in the 1800s

              They do seem confused about multiple causes, effects, etc.

              • romaaeterna13 hours ago
                You dropped "on a short-term scale" when quoting me.

                The contradiction that you see escapes me. Please explain how the fact that our proxies don't allow us to talk about decade- or century-level temperature movements 50 million years ago contradicts the statement CO2 is a lagging indicator of temperature change through most of the geologic record.

                Also, you say I am confused about something. Perhaps. Say in precise language what you think that is, and I will try to clear things up.

  • _dark_matter_22 hours ago
    Haven't you heard? The new president will fix this too! No more of these suspicious graphs!

    In all seriousness, wish there was more happening to fix this.

    • nojvek11 minutes ago
      I feel really bad for kids. If every year the temperatures are breaking records, that's not a pretty world to live in.
    • jiggawatts22 hours ago
      He's got a whole box of Sharpies.
      • defrost21 hours ago
        and, by the Commutative Law of Relatives he's at least as much of a stable genius as his uncle who was a great professor for, I believe, 40 years at MIT.
  • jemmyw19 hours ago
    It looks like the northern hemisphere is the outlier and southern, tropics, artic and antarctic are, well not cold (relatively), but not over the long term trend.
  • 21 hours ago
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  • chickentoes9921 hours ago
    [flagged]