What sank the Bayesian superyacht in Italy?

(nytimes.com)

100 points | by rediguanayum14 小时前

24 comments

  • barbegal1 小时前
    The main problem is various vents along the side of the hull. Typically these are placed closer to the centreline of the vessel such that they can't be flooded at extreme heel angles. On luxury vessels they are placed out of sight of guests and in this case along the hull. Hatches into the water tight compartments were close to the centreline but in this case flooding would have occurred rapidly through the various ventilation systems instead.

    The boat builder will blame the crew for not closing these but I doubt there was any procedure to actually close them. The engine needs to run to generate power and the engine needs fresh air and an exhaust.

  • HPMOR1 小时前
    These stories sound so abstract, and it’s hard to remember that real people suffered a real tragedy. I was visiting my friend at Princeton, when an acquaintance of his remarked that both of her parents were on the yacht. Really brought home how real it all was.
    • 58 分钟前
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  • serf10 小时前
    one of the quickest ways to ruin the way an established boat plan 'swims' is by adding a tall rig after de-masting.

    it's extremely enticing to 'add more sail' to a boat in order to squeeze more speed out of it, or achieve easier lufting.

    turns out that marine architecture is a lot harder than one thinks at first glance, and just about everyone that tries to tweak specs afterwards does so in such a way that makes the boat categorically worse.

    (don't ask me how I came to realize this after many dollars spent)

    • scrlk8 小时前
      Sounds like the old maxim around boat ownership still holds: "the two best days in boat ownership are the day you buy it and the day you sell it" :^)
      • fsckboy8 小时前
        the joke is, "the 2nd best day of your life is the day you buy your boat" which makes the listener think "2nd? oh, must be after your wedding/birth of child"

        and then you say "the 1st best day is when you sell it"

        rug pull

        • t0mas881 分钟前
          The same applies to airplanes. Which combines into the "If it floats, flies or f.. ehm.. fornicates, it's better to rent it"
        • jjordy8 小时前
          We used say boat stood for. Break out another thousand
          • AstroJetson5 小时前
            A “boat buck” Is $1000. How much was the bottom paint? All up pretty cheap, 7 boat bucks.

            Boats are just holes in the water that your throw money into.

            • jcgrillo5 小时前
              Bottom paint is about $250/gal. It takes us about half a day to sand the hull and roll on a layer. My 40' sailboat can be covered with 1 generous coat with 1gal with a little left over. $7k for bottom paint must either be a huge boat, an expensive crew, or both. It's just not all that expensive if you're willing to put in a little effort.
              • SOLAR_FIELDS3 小时前
                I’m no boat expert but doesn’t your statement imply some level of ease of dragging a boat out of the water to perform this operation? Something tells me that pulling a 40 foot sailboat out of the water, turning it over, painting it, and returning it into the water isn’t necessarily the most straightforward operation. A lot of complexity is probably loaded into “it takes us” and if we took a gander at the hourly rates of everyone involved in said operation as well as the upfront cost of the equipment to perform said operation as well as the safety measures required to execute the operation properly I feel like we would be a lot closer to the $7k number than the $250 number
                • 12thhandyman1 小时前
                  You just take the boat to the travel lift and it hoists out pretty easy. Under 1 or 2 boat bucks for in/out lift, dry storage, and paint if you DIY is reasonable for smaller vessels, like under 30’.

                  The tough part is scheduling and finding a boatyard if there’s not one close.

                  Your nautical mileage may vary

                  • 651012 分钟前
                    You have to pretend the DIY is free, or even fun. Boat people are usually not cheap to hire.
              • bboygravity1 小时前
                If you're an engineer, I'm just going to x3 to x10 that time estimate to come to something realistic, just like I do with the engineers at work.

                That way it includes going to buy the paint and sandpaper, putting the boat in a drydock or otherwise on land, finding and dragging out the tools and getting power to them, drying the boat, cleaning it, eating, toilet breaks, taping off the edges etc, letting the paint dry, cleaning up everything afterwards, putting the boat back into the water and probably tons more that I missed.

                x5 sounds about right for this one.

                • yobbo55 分钟前
                  It depends. For example, if the previous paint contains environmentally harmful compounds, you can not sand it without the infrastructure to collect the dust. The details depend on the location (regulation), but typically you need to hire this out.

                  Sanding takes multiple person-days and can be the wrong method (depending on details). Media blasting (like soda) is much preferred but requires machines and infrastructure to collect the run-off. In ideal situations, sanding is not necessary at all.

                  It can be several boat bucks, or just about a hundred dollars. It depends.

              • 1 小时前
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    • aidenn03 小时前
      I've been sailing on a 13 meter long boat in 40 knot winds, and that mast looks to have more area than the total sail we had up. The moment the wind imparts on such a tall mast must be massive.
      • shiroiushi1 小时前
        They should make these masts retractable.
        • bell-cot4 分钟前
          That'd only help if they'd retracted it before the storm hit.

          Given that they didn't undertake other, "lesser" preparations before the storm hit...

        • kitd57 分钟前
          Or use a kite.
    • TylerE9 小时前
      This is true in many things. Most car mods make the car objectively worse unless you really need the niche thing the mod does - and even if you think you do, be really sure.
      • clivestaples9 小时前
        I'm a full-time RVer and see this all the time with diesel trucks. The trucks get "deleted" and modded for more power and to disable the DEF system. Almost everyone I've known throughout the years begins having transmission trouble within months, especially after heavy load. A few swear by it. I've got a very expensive Cummins and I'm hellbent to leave it stock (and under warranty).
        • iamtheworstdev8 小时前
          the issue isnt that they disabled their DEF system or deleted their DPF or EGR, it's that they probably installed new ECUs or flashed new fuel maps or something and boosted the power beyond the torque abilities of the transmission attached. In a lot of diesel RVs the transmissions are normally good to 2,000lb-ft, but the engines can be pushed beyond that pretty easily.
        • dredmorbius6 小时前
          DEF system: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust_fluid>

          (Emissions control, reduces NOx in diesel exhaust.)

        • m4638 小时前
          I swear the older pre-def cummins engines got like 15% more mpg than the def ones. but RVs have been getting heavier too.
          • jabl8 小时前
            AFAIU modern diesels have lower combustion temperatures in order to limit NOx formation. I imagine this comes at a cost in thermodynamic efficiency.

            Similarly particle filters, catalytic converters and whatnot reduce efficiency via exhaust backpressure.

            So all in all, reducing non-CO2 emissions do come at a cost in CO2 emissions (or fuel consumed, if you like). Is it as much as 15%? No idea.. And is it all worth it? I'd argue yes, old-school diesel exhaust is nasty stuff.

            • bri3d4 小时前
              Yes, this is the exact trade from Dieselgate, as well - higher combustion temperatures increase efficiency, reducing CO2 output, but at the expense of much higher NOx production. It’s easily 15% or more.
            • 12thhandyman52 分钟前
              I’m curious how combustion temperatures are lowered like you say - is it a pv=nrt relationship hinging on changes in compression ratio or something like injector technology?
            • TylerE8 小时前
              Exhaust back pressure is not an issue at all on diesels because they all run big turbos.

              As for your later point...I very much concur. I started masking (n95) during the pandemic, and haven't stopped. I have a... large number of health issues including several respiratory ones. Exhaust in general really is nasty stuff. I live in pretty quiet smallish (100k) town, and it can be bad enough around here with all the pollen, but I wasnt recently on a whirlwind trip through the north east that saw me visit the dense urban cores of DC, Philly, Manhattan, and Boston. The difference in odor on the occasions I'd take my mask off on the sidewalk were kinda shocking as someone not used to it.

              • dexwiz4 小时前
                Out of curiosity do you live in the Great Lakes basin? I moved from Indiana to the West Coast, and I am always shocked at how bad the air quality is when I go back, even in rural areas. During wild fire season I monitor AQI, and when I zoom out I always see that Indiana is just as bad as the smokiest days on the West Coast.

                Something about the large, hardly noticeable depression traps bad air at a regional level. I wouldn’t move back for a myriad of reasons, but everyone is always surprised when I list air quality as one.

                • TylerE2 小时前
                  North Carolina. Locally it's not so much exhaust type stuff, but all the damn pollen, which I'm somewhat allergic too. Pine trees for miles. I'm about 50 miles inland from the coast so lots of wetlands so in the summer (Which means basically... late March through mid October - it's going to hit 82 here toomorrow) it's oppressively hot and humid.
              • jabl7 小时前
                > Exhaust back pressure is not an issue at all on diesels because they all run big turbos.

                Not sure what you're arguing here. Isn't it quite obvious that resistance in the exhaust system means that the engine has to do more work to push the exhaust gases out; work that otherwise could be used to turn the crankshaft. Now of course a lot of that extra energy is wasted in any case, particularly if there's nothing like a turbocharger to make use of it.

                • TylerE3 小时前
                  Practically all diesels have turbos. You have literally have to go back to tiny tractor engines form The 60s to Find ones that aren’t. Turbos already provide a ton of back pressure. What’s downstream of that is pretty irrelevant
                  • 12thhandyman1 小时前
                    Ford and VW put a naturally aspirated diesel into their vehicles up until the early/mid 90s.
        • jcgrillo6 小时前
          The U.S. diesel tuning crowd seemingly never discuss air/fuel ratios. This is a huge mistake. Also it's important to understand how much torque your transmission is rated for and to not stray beyond it. It's possible to reliably extract more performance than the manufacturer supplied but you have to understand what you're getting into. Turning it up to 11 and "rolling coal" is gonna get expensive, and it's super dumb.
          • 12thhandyman1 小时前
            I disagree the diesel crowd doesn’t discuss air/fuel ratios but perhaps I’m misunderstanding something. Sizes and types of turbos, fuel pumps, injector nozzles are frequently discussed. I do agree rolling coal is dumb but most/many daily diesel drivers don’t like it either, have always seen it as kind of a high school thing.
      • cameronh904 小时前
        Most mods in recent cars seem to just undo some of the regulatory emissions controls in exchange for a bit of performance. Engines aren’t leaving much on the table nowadays. CPU overlocking is going the same way.
      • shiroiushi1 小时前
        It depends on the mod. Some mods are easily an improvement; new tires are probably a good example here, because automakers frequently install crappy tires at the factory because of some sort of deal with the tire company, and worse, replacement for that same model of tire end up being much more expensive than better tires in the same size, probably because many consumers mistakenly think they need the exact same tire.

        But yeah, most "enthusiast" mods are a waste of money and make the vehicle worse.

      • AStonesThrow8 小时前
        In my final high school years, my parents gifted me a 1980 Corolla, and it became my experimental electronics lab for a while.

        I installed a pull-out stereo, a separate amplifier, various permanent and movable speakers, etc. I mostly had the pros installed them, but I was always tweaking things at the wire-harness level. I enjoyed my music EXTRA LOUD, with minimal distortion.

        And I had one of those basic aftermarket alarm systems. And there I was, constantly tripping the alarm for various reasons, and we lived in a safe neighborhood, so it was mostly an additional annoyance when I set it off, or armed it, or disarmed it: I was being super ostentatious.

        So my proudest DIY mod was to install a shiny toggle switch in the dashboard. The toggle switch had the sole function of disabling the alarm by cutting its power. So I basically handed it to the crooks who came along in a few weeks to steal all my cassettes. But honestly, I doubt that anyone on that block was sorry to see me separated from my music at that point.

    • sellmesoap2 小时前
      Having a home designed (previous owner) world sailing vessel with a mast that is bigger then the original designer's spec. It made it around cape horn and has seen a lot of high latitude low atmospheric pressure no problem. I've heard it argued that a longer mast makes the boat more stable like a tightrope walker with a pole.

      I'm curious about how it went for you?

  • dredmorbius6 小时前
    The cascading set of design failures brings to mind the 17th century Swedish warship Vasa:

    <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasa_(ship)>

    • 1attice2 小时前
      I thought of this too! But I thought the Vasa was sunk by leaving the gunports open?
      • stoperaticless1 小时前
        Gunports were meant to be used while sailing. (Good documentary: the pirates of caribean)

        reason according to wikipedia:

        > Vasa sank because she had very little initial stability—resistance to heeling under the force of wind or waves acting on the hull. This was due to the distribution of mass in the hull structure, and to the ballast, guns, provisions, and other objects loaded on board placing a lot of weight too high in the ship. This put the centre of gravity very high relative to the centre of buoyancy, thus making the ship readily heel in response to little force, and not providing enough righting moment for her to become upright again.

        My memory of vasa museum: At that time, ship designers not necessarily calculated center of mass and center of buoyancy.

        • mingusrude41 分钟前
          The way this is told in elementary school in Sweden (source is Swedish) is that the Vasa was too narrrow, given it's height. So then the question is, how much wider should she've been to carry the extra height. Vasa's sister ship, Äpplet (the Apple) had a similar deck layout and was about a meter wider. As a layman, considering the technology at the time, it does not sound so much more wider.
      • bell-cot27 分钟前
        That was normal-enough practice. In a good harbor, in good weather...any normal ship would have been okay.

        The real problem was the Vasa's design & weight distribution - which were disastrously unstable. Which problem had previously been demonstrated in simple dockside testing. Here's Wikipedia's account:

        > In the summer of 1628, the captain responsible for supervising construction of the ship, Söfring Hansson, arranged for the ship's stability to be demonstrated for Vice Admiral Fleming, who had recently arrived in Stockholm from Prussia. Thirty men ran back and forth across the upper deck to start the ship rolling, but the admiral stopped the test after they had made only three trips, as he feared the ship would capsize.

  • pluc7 小时前
    Pretty ironic that the single mast, that was added for sailing speed, was the likely cause yet they never used the sails. They just enjoyed it looking imposing and different.
  • irrational3 小时前
    > "The ship was an unsinkable ship. I say it, I repeat it."

    Saying that when the boat is nearly 200 feet under the surface of the sea seems insane.

    • aidenn03 小时前
      In context he was trying to place blame on the crew, so he clearly meant "unsinkable when crewed correctly." He goes on to claim that they must not have properly closed hatches &c. for the storm.
    • tanelpoder3 小时前
      Unsinkable ship, with design flaws…
    • noncoml2 小时前
      The set of boats characterized unsinkable and are now laying at the bottom of the sea:

      {Titanic, Bayesian}

      • alvah1 小时前
        Are you sure that's the complete set?
    • 2 小时前
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  • asdfman1231 小时前
    Unstable design and hurricane force winds are unfortunate Bayesian priors
  • karaterobot8 小时前
    Were mistakes made? The retractable keel was up. I'm no grizzled mariner, but that feels like a thing you'd want to do in a storm. Feels like at that point your yacht has all the stability of a guy standing up in a canoe.
    • jcgrillo6 小时前
      I sail a 1962 Block Island 40[1] with a retractable bronze centerboard. Granted, it's no mega yacht, but it has an aluminum mast that is at the thinnest 3/16" because at the time people didn't understand the material and were afraid of it. The main boom is a solid wood tree trunk that takes 3 of us to rig every year. Its solid fiberglass hull is 2" thick at the keel, tapering to about 1" at the toe rail, with solid fiberglass decks tapering from about 1" at the rail to about 3/8" where they meet the cabin top. In other words, this is a heavy, overbuilt, brick shithouse of a boat. But it's designed well and has enough ballast to be safe with the board retracted.

      The fact that the keel was up is no excuse at all.

      Adjacently, one glaring omission from the Times' coverage was reports of those gigantic cabin windows shattering. I wish they'd addressed that. I didn't know about the unseaworthy vents, but just looking at the pictures it seemed obvious that if you put that boat on its ear in any kind of weather you'd break those windows and sink.

      I've had my boat with the rail 2' under water in 6'+ choppy Buzzards Bay conditions gusting over 30kt and it was a hoot. When I imagine a floating hotel like the craft in the article in a similar situation, that's probably a fatality. I wouldn't be able to sleep onboard a boat like that.

      EDIT: There are also numerous examples in the historical record of whaling ships, clipper ships, war ships, merchant ships, and the like getting knocked down in storms and besides maybe crew being washed overboard and busted rigging getting through it relatively unscathed. It's absolutely inexcusable and shameful in the year 2024 for this to happen.

      [1] https://www.practical-sailor.com/sailboat-reviews/block-isla...

      • chawco6 小时前
        It's pretty shocking that a boat with no sail area could get knocked over bad enough to sink that quickly. Something had to be seriously wrong with the design. I'm not particularly salty, but I've sailed in 25-30kts with the rail buried and not even had a second thought about the boat sinking. I've been knocked down with full sails up in 25kts, and had a broach while racing -- sailboats can be expected to spend at least brief amounts of time on their side, even if you're not out doing anything particularly dumb. I just can't fathom how a boat wouldn't be able to survive 2 minutes on its side and still be signed off by a builder.
        • jcgrillo5 小时前
          It's a thing you can expect to happen, like falling while downhill skiing. Only the most extreme situations are like "if you fall, you die". If it's like that every time you go out, the prognosis is grim.

          EDIT: I can actually count on one hand the number of times I've been in situations like that and while it's a hell of a lot of fun it's not something you bring your friends, family, children, etc along for..

        • LorenzoGood5 小时前
          Lots of Windage on a mast that tall.
    • LgWoodenBadger7 小时前
      The keel's purpose is to balance the boat so it remains upright. A sailboat without a keel can be capsized incredibly easily.
      • jabl7 小时前
        Presumably the thinking was that with all the sails down, there was no need to have the keel lowered. Which it probably wasn't, until the boat suddenly gets hit hard by an unexpected gust from the side and the windage of the rig is sufficient to capsize it.
      • karaterobot6 小时前
        I think I phrased my comment poorly, causing confusion. I meant that putting down the retractable keel is something you'd want to do in a storm.
  • shagie4 小时前
    URL Share version https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/31/world/europe/... (the richer media on the site doesn't get archived well)
  • trhway39 分钟前
    >Beyond being exceptionally tall — more than 40 feet higher than the original foremast — it was also very heavy, at least 24 tons of aluminum, possibly more.

    the yacht is 500 ton, 4m draught (with the retractable keel not extended). The mast is 72m height. So, the 24 tons at say 30m above center of buoyancy require - minimum - 240 ton at 3m below the center of buoyancy. Add to that that the center of buoyancy is inside the body at some depth under the deck, so the weight of the body above the center of buoyancy also needs corresponding weight (lever momentum, ie. mass x lever length) below the center of buoyancy. Doesn't look good.

    • bell-cot12 分钟前
      > ...24 tons at say 30m above...

      And also the weight of full, rain-drenched sails. And a few crew aloft, fiddling with those sails. And...

  • jabl7 小时前
    As a slight aside, if anyone is interested in the topic the 'standard' introductory text is apparently 'Principles of Yacht Design' by Larsson and Eliasson. In particular, including a chapter on stability calculations. You can find an older edition freely available on archive.org.
  • xiaodai4 小时前
    the Frequentists?
    • raverbashing34 分钟前
      Nah, they would try to sink the boat by attacking it at its most common location. Even if it wasn't there in the first place
    • egl20213 小时前
      I never expected to see headlines like "Authorities investigate Bayesian disaster".
  • walrus013 小时前
    The former captain of the Bayesian laid out his opinion of what caused the sinking:

    https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2024/08/27/former-bayesia...

    It should also be noted that the fishermen in the area all received notice of incoming storm activity and many of them took precautionary measures HOURS in advance of when the storm actually hit. Whoever was the bridge watchstander on duty during that time should have been paying attention to the immediate near term weather forecast info. This was an entirely preventable incident.

  • initramfs8 小时前
    Seems like yachts are kind of like the private airline industry- when a super rich person can afford to request a bespoke design, safety requirements sometimes get eased. Plus less testing of the boat could be it. Pilots and captains for unique designs/mods might not have as much experience as commercial airlines: https://www.ctinsider.com/news/article/is-flying-private-mor... One example is the standardization of buttons in an airplane make it easier to know where to locate the important latches in an emergency.

    Also, it's possible some of these basic balancing and center-of-gravity considerations were already known over 500 years ago- it's when a novel feature gets prioritized that the fundamental stability of the design gets overlooked.

    • jabl7 小时前
      > Also, it's possible some of these basic balancing and center-of-gravity considerations were already known over 500 years ago

      To nitpick, properly being able to do these kinds of stability calculations are a considerably newer invention. E.g. the famous Vasa ship capsized in 1628 because at that time ships were still designed based on rules-of-thumb and the experience/intuition of the builders, with no stability calculations done.

      • cratermoon6 小时前
        Pretty sure the builders knew the Vasa wasn't stable. The King of Sweden wouldn't take 'no' for an answer. Just 358 years later, the people in charge of a different kind of ship, named Challenger, also wouldn't take 'no' for an answer.
        • graeme4 小时前
          Yeah the Wikipedia is instructive.

          >In the last part of the inquest held after the sinking, a group of master shipwrights and senior naval officers were asked for their opinions about why the ship sank. Their discussion and conclusions show very clearly that they knew what had happened, and their verdict was summed up very clearly by one of the captains, who said that the ship did not have enough "belly" to carry the heavy upperworks.[81] When other ships that predated stability calculations were found to lack stability, remedial action could be taken to increase the beam.

          Also the original builder and his successor both died before completion. (Not suspiciously, but makes responsibility in construction harder)

      • jcgrillo5 小时前
        But those rules of thumb worked, mostly.
    • aaron6954 小时前
      [dead]
  • kortilla3 小时前
    Bad priors
  • water-data-dude6 小时前
    “Giovanni Costantino, the chief executive of the Italian Sea Group, the company that owns Perini Navi, said that when operated properly, the Bayesian was ‘unsinkable.’”

    I assign a rather low prior probability to any ship being “unsinkable”, so I’ll need better evidence than that before my posterior probability becomes more than minuscule

    • Animats4 小时前
      It's possible to come close. This is a U.S Coast Guard response boat being tested.[1] Using big straps and winches, it was pulled all the way over until it was upside down. It immediately righted itself. Most modern rescue boats and lifeboats are self-righting. With proper hull design and enough foam flotation blocks in the right places, boats can be made to right themselves. Unless the boat is chopped into bits, it will float.

      It's worth it for those classes of vessels. Their job is to handle very rough conditions. The price of such extreme stability is a rough ride.

      Self-righting yachts exist.[2] But they look like rescue boats with nicer interiors.

      Many recreational sailboats have enough flotation to survive 90 degrees of roll, with the sails flat on the water. This is called a "knockdown". In small craft, it's usually embarrassing but not a disaster. Larger sailing craft are usually built to avoid rolling that far.

      There's a conflict between luxury and seaworthyness. The things you want for rough conditions, such as high freeboard and few openings, conflict with what people want in a luxury craft. Bayesian apparently couldn't go past 45 degrees without water pouring in. A stupidly tall and heavy mast allowed wind to push it that far over with no sails raised.

      [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXF-TjOjD5k

      [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqVItm0jfE0

    • starspangled1 小时前
      About the best you can do is a boat that is fundamentally buoyant or (aka positive buoyancy) via a combination of materials and sealed spaces, which basically means you can submerge it, flip it, fill it with water, and it buoyancy is enough that it will come to the surface.

      But if you overload it or damage it and compromise air spaces or break off or crush lighter-than-water materials (e.g., styrofoam filled fixtures and voids), then it's no longer unsinkable. So you're right, nothing is unsinkable. Not even when "operated properly" and maintained properly, there's no guarantee you won't run into unforeseen conditions. An unsinkable boat is as ridiculous as an uncrashable airplane or automobile.

    • stavros6 小时前
      Everything is unsinkable if you exclude the sinking conditions as "improper operation".
    • mulmen6 小时前
      “Operated correctly” is the true scotsman of unsinkable ships.
      • jcgrillo6 小时前
        Just don't crash it into an iceberg and you're all set.
  • 5 小时前
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  • einpoklum7 小时前
    > The retractable keel, which helped to keep the boat stable, was not fully extended when it sank.

    Regardless of inherent design issues which are perhaps debatable, this seems like a bit of a "Have you tried plugging it in?" kind of a situation.

    • krisoft6 小时前
      The rumour I heard on “The Yacht Report” youtube channel is that when the retractable keel was down it was noisy. (Probably because there was enough play in the mechanism so it was banging around as the waves passed.) And the thought was, again according to this unverified rumour, that they only needed to extend the retractable keel when they had the sails up.

      Now obviously nobody sane would make the knowing trade to risk their life for a bit of quiet. But it is easy to imagine the crew getting into the habit of retracting the keel so they can keep the rich guests comfortable. And especially if they were doing that on the regular and nothing bad happened ever people would normalise it and see it as the correct operating procedure. One might view this as a form of normalisation of deviance. “The gradual process through which unacceptable practice or standards become acceptable. As the deviant behaviour is repeated without catastrophic results, it becomes the social norm for the organisation.”

      (Technically speaking of course it is only normalisation of deviance if this was unacceptable practice. If it is true that the ship’s operating manual did not require them to have the keel down in that configuration then it is not deviance and then the term does not apply.)

      Will be interesting to read the exact findings about this in the investigation report once it is out.

      • chawco5 小时前
        From what I understand, leaving the keel up would be reasonable enough if a boat was rigged as designed. Typically the boat would be ballasted differently if you have a retractable keel/centreboard. Sounds like converting the rig from a ketch to a sloop is probably the root of the design issues, combined with some troubling risks of down flooding from the various vents mounted close to the water line.
        • jcgrillo5 小时前
          You should have positive righting moment with the keel up and sails rigged, otherwise it's totally unsafe. When you're sailing downwind you have the keel up for speed. If you get knocked down in this situation--a broach, for instance--the boat needs to be able to right itself otherwise you probably die. This boat sank when it got knocked down, and it doesn't seem the keel had anything to do with it.
      • Theodores6 小时前
        I thought the keel only needed to be down when they were something like 70 knots out at sea with the sails out, otherwise it was in the 'keel lite' position.

        Like yourself, I await the investigation report, however, I suspect that will be a bit underwhelming and only confirm speculation. It is not good to speak ill of the dead, so it will take a lot longer before someone tells the unvarnished truth. I suspect that will be a story of folly, with the big mast being the 'invisible clothes'.

        We have lots of these stories at the moment, from Oceangate all the way to the Boeing 'projects' that have been off the mark. You could 'explain it like I am five' to write a really good story book for bedtime reading for kids, going from the depths of the ocean to space, with follies that follow the same story, all the way. What a great time to be alive.

  • Onavo4 小时前
    Seems like the Bayesian owner needs to re-examine his priors.
  • rediguanayum14 小时前
    NY Times found that an unusually tall mast, and the design changes it required, made the superyacht Bayesian, owned by a tech billionaire Michael Lynch, vulnerable. Lynch co-founded Autonomy and was celebrating his court case against HP when his yacht sank.
    • Hilift5 小时前
      Actually the case that Lynch won was the US vs. Lynch criminal case. HP won their civil case against Lynch years ago (~$4 billion). The deal overall was a colossal failure by HP. The fraud was merely icing on the cake. "HP lost more than $30 billion in market capitalization during Apotheker's tenure, and on September 22, 2011, the HP Board of Directors fired him as chief executive and replaced him with fellow board member and former eBay chief Meg Whitman, with Raymond J. Lane as executive chairman. Although Apotheker served barely ten months, he received over $13 million in compensation." The Autonomy leftovers was eventually sold to OpenText. Also the previous HP CEO (Mark Hurd) went to work for Larry Ellison. He had the highest bonus for any CEO in 2008.
  • InTheArena6 小时前
    I subscribe to the NYT, via login with Apple.

    Try to login, and it never responds to the login.

    So I remember that I registered an account with an old email. Login, it send a verification code.

    And then doesn’t respond to that verification number.

    So I drop VPN… and it accepts the number… and immediately spams that email address..

    Only to throw up another paywall.

    And it still doesn’t accept the subscription I pay for.

    • mintplant4 小时前
      Do you have the Bypass Paywalls extension installed, by any chance? You may need to disable it for NYTimes.com.
    • TikTikFook3 小时前
      [dead]
  • dang4 小时前
    [stub for offtopicness]
    • krick8 小时前
      Didn't bother to read the domain and didn't remember the boats name, so I didn't quite understand the title at first. Funnily, it immediately occurred to me, that it must be "that boat", but I half-expected to see some Alex Jones meets Eliezer Yudkowsky attempt to calculate how likely this stuff is to happen using Bayesian inference.
      • jhbadger6 小时前
        Or A.W.F. Edwards claiming that had it been the Frequentist, the boat wouldn't have sunk.
        • 6 小时前
          undefined
      • bitwize6 小时前
        I was expecting something like "stochastic terrorism", but targeting rich people exclusively in a play on "a rising tide that lifts only yachts".
      • mock-possum7 小时前
        In order to determine the likelihood that the yacht has sunk, we must first examine our priors.
    • meindnoch8 小时前
      The one good thing about the sinking of the Bayesian: we can at least update our posteriors.
      • gosub1006 小时前
        And I know I'll fail at trying to understand it.
    • jeffbee7 小时前
      [flagged]
      • pluc6 小时前
        They don't ask how, they ask how much
    • rkagerer8 小时前
      [flagged]
    • Jemm8 小时前
      [flagged]
      • dang4 小时前
        You can't post like this here, and we ban accounts that do, so please don't do it again. You may not owe billionaires better, but you owe this community better if you're participating in it.

        If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

      • jcgrillo6 小时前
        [flagged]
    • 8 小时前
      undefined