I got a heat pump and my energy bill went up

(heatpumped.org)

37 points | by ssuds13 小时前

11 comments

  • tommiegannert5 小时前
    Transparency is great, but let's not forget that the point of switching to electricity is to be able to use renewables. We only have one nice planet to live on, and there are others who want to keep being able to live comfortably on it, I've heard. Oil/gas is a potent drug that is difficult to vane off of.

    (Arguably solar/battery has the same problem as oil: let's dig and refine stuff from the ground, and not care about how to take care of the concentrated product once we're done with it. But to a much lesser extent.)

    • glimshe50 分钟前
      It's not only potent, but fantastically cost-effective. There is a reason it's popular, or so I've heard.
    • nottorp4 小时前
      That sounds good and altruistic...

      ... for the high income techies that make most of the HN audience.

      Ask a normal person how they feel about paying for the heat pumps and having an extra hundred or two on their ongoing heating bill and you may get a different answer. Up to and including them not being able to cut expenses anywhere else to compensate for this.

      • torginus3 小时前
        You can DIY an usable solar setup, complete with battery, for a couple thousand euros, panels and inverters are already quite cheap and the battery prices is coming down.

        If you have the space to put it, you can be self-sufficient for most of the year. Equipment is VAT-free in Germany and Austria, too.

        The big problem with solar, is that winter days are cold and dark, so when you need heating the most, it's the least available.

        • nottorp3 小时前
          > If you have the space to put it

          High income people living in detached houses again...

          • Kim_Bruning2 小时前
            I think it depends on the country. In some places electricity is cheaper than gas (already) and it starts to go the direction of a no-brainer. But see also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boots_theory

            On the other hand, with less demand from part of the population, gas prices should ultimately start to come down a bit; if we look at straight spot prices and pure economic theory.

            However, for some reason utilities don't always care about theory. And we probably want to stop using gas and oil in Europe anyway; would be smarter. (We're pretty much literally paying for wars waged against us; now and in future)

            So, I'm thinking maybe some sort of subsidized replacement program; perhaps interest-free loans with government backing or some such; which can be paid back with (part of) the efficiency gains?

          • torginus2 小时前
            Lots of people who are not exactly high income live in the countryside, too..

            Additionally, living in shared housing does not disqualify you from having solar panels installed either - if you live in an apartment complex that's a modestly sized 2x2x2 - meaning it has 4x the surface area, and 4x the roof area, the math generally works out the same - for longer houses, it's better, for taller ones its worse, but I think there are a ton of sweet spots, but tall and skinny apartment buildings will lose out.

      • amanaplanacanal4 小时前
        Yes but... the externalities are really expensive, and are going to be paid by somebody. It's a hidden cost
        • nottorp3 小时前
          Agreed, but you only tend to accept that when the other needs in that famous pyramid are taken care of.

          Regulation that increases cost of living is only going to cause resentment and we already see where that leads to.

          Can't do it with feel good statements, you need the authorities to support/push towards cheaper electricity. Like the Denmark poster said elsewhere on this thread. Is this going to happen globally? I somehow don't think so...

          • Kim_Bruning2 小时前
            China is pushing hard; EU is pushing less hard but a little; only the US (says) they're going to lag behind these next few years.
        • westmeal4 小时前
          What about in the case of a township offering "natural gas"/methane that would ordinarily be lost to the atmosphere anyway? Isn't it better to burn it rather than leave it as is? Methane is pretty awful stuff in terms of the greenhouse effect.
  • rayiner11 小时前
    I don’t know where this person is, but electricity is wildly expensive in many places. On a cold day, a good heat pump might give you say a COP of 2. So with 5 kW, you get out 10 kW of heat, or 35,000 BTU/hour. In say MA, at $0.25 per kWh retail, that’s $1.25/hour. In Boston, natural gas costs $1.5/therm, which is 100,000 BTUs. With a 96% efficient condensing boiler, you’re looking at $0.55/hour for the same 35,000 BTU/hour output, or less than half the price.

    To be comparable to natural gas, you need electricity to be about $0.10 per kWh retail. That’s basically the PNW, the mountain west, and parts of the Deep South.

    • BeefWellington4 小时前
      PG&E is basically California, where it can hit north of $0.50/kWh pretty regularly.

      I think it's worth noting in this article too that the author mentions they can now heat and cool parts of their house they weren't previously, so I'm gonna guess their actual usage went up and this is basically surprise for no reason.

  • NotAnOtter11 小时前
    Def not making an account on whatever random website heatpumped.org is. Owner of the site needs to stop pretending their the WSJ.

    Anyways the phrasing of the non-blocked article seems to imply the title is a red herring, and their bill actually went down. I'll never know though.

    • marcus0x6211 小时前
      If you look at the PGE bill that is visible before article gets cut off, his electricity use went way up year over year and his natural gas use went down. I'm guessing he got an electric heat pump to replace his gas furnace, and just pays a lot more per kWh for electricity than he was paying per therm or cuft or whatever of natural gas.
      • grakker10 小时前
        He was out of town for 3 weeks the year before. He then compared to previous years and his use is way down.
    • ssuds11 小时前
      Hi there. Author of this post. The content gate is on by default for all of my newsletter content, but I figured out a way to turn it off. You should be able to read the full article now without putting in an email.
      • MilnerRoute8 小时前
        Thank you for making your article's text available. This seems to be the key quote people were looking for:

        "Many homeowners with heat pumps are likely on the wrong rate plan and paying more than they should. The right plan can make the difference between saving money and spending more money with the exact same equipment."

  • ZeroGravitas2 小时前
    Good article though the combination of the clickbait headline and the (later removed) subscription wall makes many of the comments less useful as they are reacting mostly to the headline.

    It should in theory be possible to have "no regret" government support for this similar to the price collar used for renewables.

    People are not rational economic actors and some kind of insurance for the worst case scenario can help make markets work better.

    I think in California they have some kind of support for efficiency improvements which is funded based on evidence of lower bills afterwards so that might also help to incentivized good heat pump installs (including the physical install, the controls, being on the right tariff and promptly fixing any issues that comes up).

  • jakedata11 小时前
    Protip - it's often cheaper to heat with burning buffalo chips than electricity even if your heat pump is super efficient. Do a spreadsheet and maybe get some solar panels to feed the new beast. Otherwise you may just need to bask in the glow of self satisfaction and enjoy not poisoning yourself with VOCs and CO.

    I'm not subscribing to your newsletter...

    • KptMarchewa3 小时前
      In many places of the world winter means no or barely any sun. Panels won't help.
      • Kim_Bruning2 小时前
        It gets interesting with batteries, panels, and spot prices. You can eg. offset (some of) your winter costs in summer. And it does depend on your latitude and local market. It's an interesting optimization problem.
        • KptMarchewa1 小时前
          Maybe - but then you end up in a situation like author where delivery costs trump generation, because the additional winter capacity does not come from nowhere. And the actual best case is what happens in California - mass deployment of batteries.
          • Kim_Bruning12 分钟前
            Ah, so ultimately the author did end up paying less. The problem was they were on the wrong plan.

            And the optimization problem at this point in time is that -ideally- you want to have some amount of excess generation on your solar panels, then time shift that with batteries to a point in time when power is more expensive, and have some amount of excess capacity in batteries so you can also sell that power; versus the (amortized) cost of that extra capacity; and/or what will actually fit on your roof.

            This varies per house/plot, per contract, and per latitude. But in some situations you can end up at net 0 or better.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-energy_building

            • KptMarchewa3 分钟前
              >And the optimization problem at this point in time is that -ideally- you want to have some amount of excess generation on your solar panels, then time shift that with batteries to a point in time when power is more expensive, and have some amount of excess capacity in batteries so you can also sell that power; versus the (amortized) cost of that extra capacity; and/or what will actually fit on your roof.

              Yep, that's the ideal case - given you're in the region where you have reliable sunshine in the winter. It's not the case where I live, when we had total of 7 hours of sun in December 2023.

    • 11 小时前
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  • 8fingerlouie4 小时前
    Personally i save about 75% with my heatpump over my old gas furnace.

    We used around 1500m3 - 1800m3 worth of natural gas per year, and for the past couple of years we've used between 4000kWh and 5000kWh on the heat pump per year.

    Granted, natural gas is expensive in Denmark, and while electricity is also normally expensive, if you have electrical heating you're excempt from paying taxes on electricity usage above 4000 kWh per year.

    Currently, with heat pump and an EV, i'm paying less in electricity per year than i did in natural gas before.

    • nottorp4 小时前
      > while electricity is also normally expensive, if you have electrical heating you're excempt from paying taxes on electricity usage above 4000 kWh per year

      :) So it can be done with state subsidies, but worldwide even the one time bonuses for EVs are being canceled. States aren't likely to give up on even more revenue.

  • hsuduebc211 小时前
    Protip. Just insert any valid email into subscription dialog and it instantly unlocks. No need to register.
    • 11 小时前
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    • barrettondricka11 小时前
      Great tip indeed.

      However, please don't use anybody else's email. (No @example.com) Preferably use the domain of the website itself, or of a SEO spam website.

      • KptMarchewa2 小时前
        I use emails of politicians I don't like.
      • TMWNN7 小时前
        >(No @example.com)

        The example.{com,org,net} domain was created for this purpose, of a valid but not real domain.

      • hsuduebc211 小时前
        You can safely insert something like dnkejdjd@vwvsjs.co

        Great idea with spamming sites hehe

  • 112358132111 小时前
    Realize the main point was the differing electric and gas costs, but the briefly mentioned behavior change can be a significant cost factor. We went through this with solar, and to a lesser extent, our heat pump water heater. We just don’t have the same gut wrench when the thermostat is low. And, if we are controlling temperature mostly for comfort when it’s expensive, why not dial it in more accurately when the cost doesn’t change much and our state utility tells us our high production burdens them? Increasing kwh cost will eventually fix this. :)
  • dangus12 小时前
    This is both hard to explain to people and hard to get them onboard even once it's been explained and understood.

    I think more people should think about things this way: I'm building a house now, so am I betting that in 30 years the price of gas will decrease or increase? Will electricity decrease or increase in price?

    Anyone who has seen a graph of solar, battery, wind, and other renewable power grid solution costs should probably be betting that gas will increase in price over time and that electricity should decrease in cost over time, at the very least relative to one another.

    I also think that more homeowners and especially builders need to stop choosing the cheapest installation options every single time as a default. I know that building a home is expensive and housing is already at a very high cost, but the US housing market is positively riddled with short term thinking when it comes to homebuilding.

    At some point the comfort and safety benefits of a heat pump should be worth it. For example, a fully electrified home essentially eliminates carbon monoxide risk. You also lose the need to pay for two transmission fees (the part of your bill that involves the base service cost and not the metered usage).

    • blitzar5 小时前
      > that electricity should decrease in cost over time

      On the back of decades of experience - year in, year out the only constant is that utility bills go up. This time it might be different, but I doubt it.

      • Kim_Bruning2 小时前
        Depends on time and place. I know there's spot price contracts you can get that will -at times of day and year- go negative. That is to say, they'll pay you to use electricity (or alternately, they'll actually charge you if you feed in solar power). At other times of day the price is positive again.

        It takes a bit of savvy -and panels, and batteries- to actually make optimal use of this, I figure. That said, prices sometimes going negative, however the circumstances, is definitely a bit of a change.

    • lm284694 小时前
      > I think more people should think about things this way:

      Seeing the monstrosities people build I think we have a long way to go

  • mapt12 小时前
    I wanted to read this, but not enough to make an account. Whoever is publishing this blog should consider whether a $0 paywall is worthwhile.
    • nottorp4 小时前
      Interesting; by the time i read this i didn't get asked for an email. 7 hours later than your post.

      The author has seen the light? :)

    • ssuds11 小时前
      Hey, author of the post here. I can understand your sentiment. Here's a PDF of the article if you don't want to put in your email: https://drive.google.com/file/d/17z3QUpPcWH0HH-QwI8agZIniesI...
    • 112358132111 小时前
      You can enter any email and the article instantly unlocks. It doesn’t seem to be an account.
    • SanjayMehta11 小时前
      Use a temp throwaway email service such as mailinator.com

      Works most of the time.

      • remram11 小时前
        I usually put in postmaster@<yourdomain> (e.g. postmaster@heatpumped.org). Eat your own spam, idiot.
        • blitzar5 小时前
          I usually put in <ceo name>@<major ad / search / social media platform>
        • SanjayMehta7 小时前
          Never thought of that, now it will be the first thing I'll try.

          Mailinator is great if the website wants you to click a link or enter an OTP to verify whatever it is that they verify.

      • 11 小时前
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    • somerandomnames12 小时前
      You're not alone with this one, don't need another potential source of spam.
  • tguvot11 小时前
    Only if you have few years worth of data that shows indoor temperature, hvac runtime and how quickly house gains/looses heat, you can figure out if "amazingly efficient heatpump" will run cheaper than gas furnace.

    Unless electricity is seriously cheap or free

    • bumby10 小时前
      You can energy model it if you have the time.
      • tguvot7 小时前
        if you do fresh manual J calculation, with updated design temperature (which in reference manual is still incorrect) and blower door test, than maybe. And it still very theoretical

        but realistically, very few people do it when they update hvac system. in fact, most (all?) of hvac installers simply refuse to do it.